What’s New in Psychology?

Do Children Show Traits of Overconfidence in their Abilities?

Jim Windell

            Overconfidence in one’s own abilities – despite evidence to the contrary – is a trait seen in some people. For instance, this cognitive bias has been observed among a number of professions, including business executives, bankers and physicians in different countries and different cultures.

           The heuristic of overconfidence is an internal process that relates to how we assess the accuracy of our stored knowledge and our perceptual models. Some studies have shown that people in general have more confidence in the accuracy of their knowledge and actions than is justified. However, while a little bit of overconfidence can be helpful and may lead us to try challenging things, a lot of overconfidence can lead us to make bad decisions and to miss out on opportunities to learn. Researchers note that overconfidence is a documented problem for drivers, motorcyclists, bungee jumpers, doctors and lawyers, as well as some students.

             But is overconfidence a trait that can be found in young children or does it develop later in life?

            That was a question asked by Dr Dominik Piehlmaier, a researcher at Sussex University. Piehlmaier, a Lecturer in Marketing at the University of Sussex Business School, and the study's author, said that "Much of our knowledge on judgment and decision-making is based on adult participants but there is no reason to believe that humans only develop such an omnipresent cognitive illusion once we reach adulthood.”

           In the study, published in Scientific Reports, children were asked to play a card game known as the Children's Gambling Task where they choose cards from one of two packs. The card is then turned over to reveal how many stickers the participant has won and lost. One pack had cards with significantly higher wins and losses than the other. At intervals, children had to decide whether they thought they would win more, about the same, or fewer stickers than previously in the game. Each participant started off with four stickers after the initial six practice trials. On average, every participant gained 0.3 stickers per turn and left the game with an average of 6.67 stickers, ranging from zero to 33.

           The results of the study showed that more than 70% of four-year-olds and half of all five and six-year-olds were overconfident in their expectations after playing ten turns and six practice trials. The study also found that girls were more successful than boys at the card game thanks to a more low-risk strategy, but girls also experienced greater swings between overconfidence and lack of confidence in their abilities. Although the children played more than 60 turns and saw their payoff balance rise and fall, yet every third child still thought that they could do better than they had done in the previous 50 turns.

           "My findings indicate that effective interventions that increase an individual's knowledge about their own knowledge and its boundaries might be needed to target much younger individuals if one wants to efficiently calibrate a person's irrational confidence," says Dominik Piehlmaier. "A vast number of repetitions, learning, and feedback in the study did not diminish the misplaced confidence in the success of the majority of participants.”

           Piehlmaier noted that the Children's Gambling Task closely resembles a very simplified version of the financial markets with relatively safe options providing low but steady average return rates and highly risky assets that promise much higher short-term gains with a catastrophic long-term yield. "The finding that overconfidence is persistent even in the face of own shortcomings mirrors results from previous studies that looked at the performance of investors," he said.

           "My findings indicate that effective interventions that increase an individual's knowledge about their own knowledge and its boundaries might be needed to target much younger individuals if one wants to efficiently calibrate a person's irrational confidence."

           To read the original article, find it with this reference:

Piehlmaier, D.M. (2020). Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition. Scientific Reports, 10 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-61078-z